Just watched Scott's post match interview and was gobsmacked that he thought we were outstanding! Was I at a different gene or am I the deluded one? He also stated firmly that he is not for changing (reminds me of a former tory prime minister Maggie someone!) So don't expect any of the changes talked about on here to happen or a different plan B to happen any time soon.
I openly acknowledge that he is the manager and knows far far more than me and many of us on here but his inability to see that a 1-1 home draw against a poor team like Walsall isn't outstanding absolutely baffles me and makes me concerned that he is a putting pride before a fall.
Just watched Scott's post match interview and was gobsmacked that he thought we were outstanding! Was I at a different gene or am I the deluded one? He also stated firmly that he is not for changing (reminds me of a former tory prime minister Maggie someone!) So don't expect any of the changes talked about on here to happen or a different plan B to happen any time soon.
I openly acknowledge that he is the manager and knows far far more than me and many of us on here but his inability to see that a 1-1 home draw against a poor team like Walsall isn't outstanding absolutely baffles me and makes me concerned that he is a putting pride before a fall.
His honeymoon period is definitely over. Saving us from relegation was last season. We are better, but still pretty average tbh. I don't think SL is the one to take us further, even if the club had the money to back him in the transfer window, which they didn't. We are one dimensional, easy to read, easy to beat. The occasional good performance means we might manage top half of the table.
Agreed. Depending on any director change, and Wagmi's ambitions, I can see a possible change sometime next season. However it is clear that Wagmi will want recruitment/style of play based on their mathematical model, so any manager will have to be okay with that. Currently reading a book on ExG to try and understand this.
Looking at our ExG stats we are 15th for attack (1.35) and 17th for defence (1.45), so compares well with our actual position of 15th. We are actually doing better in attack (1.5 , 9th) and worst in defence (1.63, 16th) which is not surprising the way we are set up.
Agreed. Depending on any director change, and Wagmi's ambitions, I can see a possible change sometime next season. However it is clear that Wagmi will want recruitment/style of play based on their mathematical model, so any manager will have to be okay with that. Currently reading a book on ExG to try and understand this.
Looking at our ExG stats we are 15th for attack (1.35) and 17th for defence (1.45), so compares well with our actual position of 15th. We are actually doing better in attack (1.5 , 9th) and worst in defence (1.63, 16th) which is not surprising the way we are set up.
Hi Sooty, serious question. Is the book easy reading? I would like to understand more about the selection of a player through mathematical modelling but could do with an “easy” read.
Yes I am finding it fairly easy to read, using a number of examples of players and games from Premier League EFL and Europe. Book is Expected Goals Philosophy by James Tippett (currently 99p on Kindle from Amazon).
Not read that book Sooty but one of the issues with stats exG included is bias.
For instance. Free kick on the edge other box. Up steps Roberto Carlos. What's the exG. Change the taker to David Beckham. Does the exG go up or down?
Another example of an issue is a free header in the middle of the goal that hits the crossbar v a trickier from 30 yards that is on target but the keeper traps.
Check the criteria. No such thing as a perfect stat but some are better than others due to the way they are calculated.
I thought we had a reasonable game myself, especially in the second half. Yes, there were moments of sloppiness too. Overall, I thought we were better than the opposition, but not by much.
Not read that book Sooty but one of the issues with stats exG included is bias.
For instance. Free kick on the edge other box. Up steps Roberto Carlos. What's the exG. Change the taker to David Beckham. Does the exG go up or down?
Another example of an issue is a free header in the middle of the goal that hits the crossbar v a trickier from 30 yards that is on target but the keeper traps.
Check the criteria. No such thing as a perfect stat but some are better than others due to the way they are calculated.
Jim Baker
Agree stats can be read anyway, and even then a game will go completely different than expected. Harrogate have been good away from home recently so whom would have predicted them losing 9-2 to Mansfield?
Only half way through book, but does indicate that each player has their own ExG, so assume it would change depending on who took the same free kick (as each player may aim the ball differently) I noticed Liam Kelly was taking corners from the West side against Walsall and they looked better than those taken by Wright. Presumably this is something the coaching side has looked at.
The book said the best players like Messi and Ronaldo consistently have high ExG because of better positioning, taking shots in better positions. No chance has a ExG of 1 because there is always a chance of missing how easy the chance.
Book also indicates quality of your colleagues important. If you are making great defence splitting passes for example, but the strikers keep missing your Assists will be lower. It asks what would happen if you played a top Premium League player in League 2, would their assists go down, due to strikers not taking chances as much?
As yet, defence/keepers have not been mentioned and this effects stats too. Interesting read so far, but recruitment teams should be looking at a number of other things as well when looking at players, such as temperament, consistency, recent performances, age , standard playing etc
Agreed. Depending on any director change, and Wagmi's ambitions, I can see a possible change sometime next season. However it is clear that Wagmi will want recruitment/style of play based on their mathematical model, so any manager will have to be okay with that. Currently reading a book on ExG to try and understand this.
Looking at our ExG stats we are 15th for attack (1.35) and 17th for defence (1.45), so compares well with our actual position of 15th. We are actually doing better in attack (1.5 , 9th) and worst in defence (1.63, 16th) which is not surprising the way we are set up.
Sooty , I believe ExG is well slanted towards 'Avg Possession Stats Per Game' and LESS Towards 'Shots on Target Per game'.
Well we are in the Top4 for 'Possession Stats Per Game' and Notts County are TOP, but we are in the Bottom3 since Jan 1st on 'Shots On Target Per Game'.
The Top 3 in the Premier for 'Shots on Target Per Game' are Liverpool, Man City & Arsenal and thats where they sit in the League. Brighton are in the Top 3 for Possession Per Game and they dont sit anywhere near the Top, Neither do We or Notts County, therefore ExG is the Last Stat I would use. But surprisingly many do use it.
Possession stats and XG stats are all well and good and may play a part, but STILL the biggest most important stats are shots/headers on goal (for and against) and goals scored (for and against) as we could all find possession stats from games up and down the levels from non league to Prem whereby a team has 60/70% possession and lost 2/3 nil so having high possession does not always correlate with winning games of football. We have all seen teams who boom it have successful times with the pressure that brings on a team defending against it.
I’m not pro possession/direct play either way, I simply prefer to see a team I watch or support win, however that is achieved. When you go home at the end of a game, you go into work and talk to friends and colleagues, nothing gives you a better feeling than having seen your team win, the result will often trump however the team achieved it.
Agreed Paul. It concerns me that sometimes Scott gives the impression that he is happier if we play well but lose, than he is when we play badly but win e.g. Gillingham away.