Harrogate and Colchester look like they have done enough to end lingering doubts about their status next season and Rochdale, in spite of earning a late point, are down except for some late death throes. So it falls to a shoot-out between us and Hartlepool, which confirms how it's been shaping up for a while. We win at Hartlepool and that should be enough. We lose by one goal and they overtake us on goals scored. We draw and I'm hiding under the duvet for the next fortnight.
After tonight: Crawley GD -24 Points 42 Hartlepool GD -26 Points 39 Hartlepool v Crawley If Crawley win (assume by 1 goal) GD -23 points 45 we can get maximum 51 points Hartlepool GD -27 points 39 maximum 45 would men we are virtually safe and can only go down on GD. A point against Walsall (or Swindon) and we are safe. It's all set up for a massive day at home to secure safety.
If Crawley draw GD remains unaltered and essentially with both us and Hartlepool gaining a point our max is 49, theirs 46, so we need to better Hartlepool over 2 games but we have the better GD
If Crawley lose (assume by 1 goal) GD is equal at -25 each, points equal on 42 and its again all down to the final two games.
BUT its all in our own hands. We have the advantage. Lets use it.
As you indicate George, we need to get at least a draw on Saturday to keep the advantage. Pity we did not win last night as we would have been in a better position.
I note that if points and goal difference are the same, goals scored decide position. At the moment, Hartlepool have 48 to our 45, so close. If same, head to head will decide it. Hopefully it won't be so close and we will win on Saturday.
I note that if points and goal difference are the same, goals scored decide position. At the moment, Hartlepool have 48 to our 45, so close. If same, head to head will decide it. Hopefully it won't be so close and we will win on Saturday.
and if we win Saturday and the GD and goals sco0red are same (my head hurts is that possible?) and we win a game each then what toss a coin?
I note that if points and goal difference are the same, goals scored decide position. At the moment, Hartlepool have 48 to our 45, so close. If same, head to head will decide it. Hopefully it won't be so close and we will win on Saturday.
and if we win Saturday and the GD and goals sco0red are same (my head hurts is that possible?) and we win a game each then what toss a coin?
I think it's a mathematical impossibility anyway.
Consider: We lost 2-0 to Hartlepool at our place so to balance the head-to head element on goal difference and goals scored, we would have to win 2-0. Any other result would make someone the winner on head to head by goal difference or goals scored on head to head if all else was equal.
So we win 2-0.
That gives:
Crawley Played 44 Points 45 For 47 Against 69 GD -22
Hartlepool Played 44 Points 39 For 48 Against 76 GD -28
For Hartlepool to make up those 6 points they would need to win 2 and we would have to lose 2. That means that even if points and GD were level, either goals scored or head to head can't be level. Hartlepool would be the more like beneficiary if it came down to that.
It wouldn't surprise me if I worked that out wrong but it looks right first thing in the morning? Caffeine may change that.